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3 facets for NS decision making
  • National Security
  • Bureaucratic
  • Political
3 Models for Decision Making
  • Rational actors
  • Organizational behavior
  • Governmental process
3 Roles of President in process
  1. Resource allocation; Ordering priorities through resource use
  2. Policy planning; long-term strategy
  3. Coordinating and monitoring; overseeing day-to-day
4 general ways congress can influence NS decisions
  • Framing opinion
  • Anticipated reaction
  • Procedural legislation
  • Substantive legislation
4 statutory members of NSC
  • Secretary of State
  • Secretary of Defense
  • Vice-President
  • President
5 kinds of procedural legislation
  • Create institutions in executive branch
  • Reporting requirment
  • Enfranchise new groups in decision making process
  • Set conditions needed for policy implementations
  • Legislative veot
5 parts of PCC process
  1. Define problem
  2. Clariy intra-group rules and processes
  3. Articulate objectives, assess options, create overall strategy
  4. Identify policy instruments to accomplish strategy
  5. Integratd policy document
6 major security challenges of coming decades
  • Identity conflicts
  • Resources and energy
  • Demographic changes
  • Globalization
  • Failed states, governance, democracy
  • Rise of Great Powers/Regional Power
6 tasks of bureaucracies
  • Be wary of joint or cooperative efforts
  • Avoid taking on tasks that differ from those at the heart of the organization
  • Fight organizations that seek to perform your task
  • Avoid tasks that will produce hostile or divided commu
Advisor
Uses NSC to collect views and picks one
Anticipated reactions
  • Constrains POTUS to politically feasible options
  • May force POTUS to reconsider options
Assumptions of Rational Actors model
  • Quantifiable and measurable
  • Assumes unitary rational actor; anthropomorphizes the state.
  • Chooses option that maximizes security
  • Realist model
  • Goals and objectives that translate into payoff/utility;cost/benefit
Bilateral tensions between US an Soviets 75-89
  • Provided a unitary world strategy
  • Every issue viewed through Cold War paradigm
  • Taints understanding
Bureaucratic facet
  • Interests of individual organizations within bureaucracy
  • Regional vs. functional bureaus creates turf wars
Clinton Afghanistan
  • More troops
Clinton Iran
  • Talks
  • Labeled IRGC terrorist entity
Clinton North Korea
  • Communication
  • Diplomacy
Clinton nukes
  • NNPT
  • Reduce nukes in talks
Clinton Russia
  • Support human rights/democracy
  • Less nukes
Clinton trade
  • Doesn't support NAFTA
Clinton war on terror
  • Doesn't focus on root auses
  • NMD
Congressional Negotiator
Rare to lead delegation to negotiate
Democracy 1989-2001
  • Clinton strategy to promote democracy
  • Third wave of democracy
Democracy promotion - GWB era
  • Give people non-violent avenues of expression
  • Democratic peace theory
  • Government's accountable to citizens
Era of Decolonization 75-89
  • End of colonial era
  • Collapse of structures from previous century and a half
Framing option
Change climate of opinion surrounding policy
Funnel aspect to OMB
  • All communications between WH and Congress go through OMB; Such as:
  • Legislative proposals
  • Testimony
  • Views on legislation
Governmental process model  
  • Action channels
  • Rules of game which provide constraints on power, guidelines
  • Top dogs are decision makers responsive to the political process
  • Good for managing crises
  • Bargaining aspect/games to get results
  • P
Honest Broker
Gather and present different views and positions
How OMB serves POTUS
  • Where POTUS turns to find out how gov't works
  • Only permanent civil service to work for POTUS; memory bank
  • Nerve center of the White House
Influence of Congress?
  • Limited in crises
  • Some influence in strategic policy
  • Lots of influence in structural policy
Int'l Economics 1989-2001
  • Japan viewed as threat
  • Economics becomes security issue
  • NAFTA; Uruguay round
Interagency process
  • Interagency process routed through NSC
  • Centralized control on ia process by POTUS
  • Involves routine consultations of senior department and agency officials
McCain Afghanistan
  • More NATO
McCain Energy & Environment
  • Emission caps & credits
  • Less energy dependence
  • More nuclear power
McCain foreign aid
  • Attach strings
  • Make security part of foreign aid
McCain Iran
  • Sanctions
  • Potential force
McCain Iraq
  • Stay until we win
McCain nukes
  • NMD
  • Strengthen NNPT, IAEA
McCain Russia
  • Anti-Putin
McCain trade
  • Low barriers to change
  • Globalization good
McCain war on terror
  • Continue bush doctrine
  • NMD
Membership of Deputies Committee
  • Assistant Secretaries
  • Under Secretaries
  • Deputy Secretaries
Membership of NSC
  • 4 statutory members
  • Membership outlined in Presidential Decision Memorandum
Membership of Principles Committee of NSC
  • Cabinet Secretaries
  • DNI
  • CJCS
Monitor
Monitor agency actions to make sure bureaucrats do what they're told
National security facet
  • Nat'l security interests language; WMD'; Kenna's containment
  • About strategy, events, and external stimuli
  • Politicians bring different world views
NS architecture 1989-2001
  • Defrost of Cold War era and end of Cold War consensus on direction of foreign policy
  • Dissolution of existing architecture
NS architecture 75-89
  • Creation of strong military which becomes dominant institution in NS architecture
  • Breaking of missile competition leads to Reykavik summit
Obama China
  • Views as competitor
  • Reevaluate Yuan
Obama Energy
  • Invest in clean, renewable energy
Obama foreign aid
  • Increase aid to Africa
  • Give aid to help failing/failed states
Obama Iran
  • Open dialogue
Obama Iraq
  • Phased withdrawal
  • Use UN
Obama North Korea
  • Continue 6 party talks
Obama nukes
  • Reduce nukes in talks
Obama Russia
  • Reduce nuke levels in talks
Obama trade
  • Open markets
  • Environmental and labor protections
Obama war on terror
  • Focus on root causes
  • Focus on the 'Stans
OMB budgetary roles
  • Circulates how to account for and spend funds
  • Assists making and clears all federal budgets
  • Sets funding policy; funding levels
  • Participates in DoD budget planning, which controls 80% of intel assets
OMB in crises?
  • FEMA largest crisis budget
  • OMB finds money and who can spend it; shits money around
  • Goes to congress for amendment or emergency supplemental
Organization of NSC
  • Principles Committee
  • Deputies Committee
  • Policy Coordinating Committees
  • No permanent NSC staff;appointed
Organizational Behavior model  
  • Creation of specialization and turf through compartmentalized information
  • Orders from top-down creates leeway and room for interpretation due to bureaucratic inertia
  • Options tend to be quickest, least risk, or canned operations
Policies GWB entered office on    
  • Modernizing military
  • China
  • Missile defense
  • No nation building
Policy Coordinating Committees
  • Interagency working groups
  • Worker bee level
  • Explores issues, options, and assets
Policy focuses after 9/11
  • Terrorism
  • WMD's
  • Unilateralism
  • Democracy
Political facet
  • Governmental process; relationships of senior policy officials
  • Presidential preferences and politics
  • Congress
  • Societal aspect; Iron triangle
POTUS-Secretariat
Set up presidential meetings
Problems with Rational Actors model
  • Reactive to situations, problem oriented and not creative
  • Impossible or hard to change
  • Goals differ between actors
  • If info is missing or perceptions wrong, decisions may be bad
  • Doesn't accomodate irrational
Procedural legislation
  • Seeks to change who makes policy and how decisions are made
  • Multiple ways
Role of PC/DC/PCC in interagency process
  • Ensure options brought to POTUS reflect a consensus among departments
  • DC/PCC papers passed up to PC
Role of US troops 1989-2001
  • Rise of peacekeeping and peacemaking
  • How to use US troops; Rwanda, Haiti, Somalia, Balkans, etc
Roles of NS advisor
  • Honest Broker
  • Advisor
  • Monitor
  • Crisis Manager
  • POTUS-Secretariat
  • Spokesperson
  • Congressional Negotiator
Specific ways congress exercises influence
  • Hearings and oversight
  • Appointments through advise and consent role
  • Research through GAO,CRS,CBO
  • Debates and Statements
  • Legislation
  • Issue Leaders
  • Budgets and appropriations
Spokesperson
Gives POTUS control over message
State of Int'l System - GWB era
  • Porous int'l system
  • States no longer only context for int'l events
Substantive Legislation
Making policy into law
Terrorism - GWB era
  • Global
  • State sponsors
  • Win war of ideas
  • Replaces cold war paradigm
  • State sponsors
Terrorism 1989-2001
  • Middle East emerges as a security issue
  • Int'l terrorism after WTC/Embassy bombings, USS cole
  • Non-proliferation, especially Iraq
  • Ethnic and religious conflicts enhanced by authority vacuums
Unilateralism - GWB era
  • Counterproliferation and regime change can happen together
  • Preemptive vs. Preventive wars
WMD's - GWB era
  • Fear of terrorists/rogue states acquiring them
  • Proliferation Security Initiative

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